Diamer-Basha Dam in Pakistan – An Overview

The Diamer-Basha dam, is part of a five-dam cascade ¹planned on river Indus in Pakistan, having a joint potential capacity of generating 22,000 MW power.  Diamer-Basha dam is part of a US $ 80 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This cascade is planned all the way down the Indus from Gilgit-Baltistan to the existing Tarbela dam near Islamabad.

1.1. Five-dam Cascade on Indus River

The uppermost of the five dams ¹is being planned at Bunji near Skardu in Pakistan administered Kashmir. The 7,100 MW Bunji Hydropower Project is described by Pakistan’s Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) as a run-of-the-river (ROR) project. But in the promotional video (for the entire cascade) also says this project will have a reservoir spreading along a 22-km stretch of the Indus. It will also inundate a 12-km stretch of the road between Gilgit and Skardu – the two main towns of Gilgit-Baltistan. So, despite the description, this may not be actually a ROR project.

The next dam in the cascade is Diamer-Basha, with a planned live storage of 6.4 million acre feet (MAF) of water and a hydropower generating potential of 4,500 MW. The projects run along the Karakoram Highway, which China built in the 1960s through Pakistan administered Kashmir despite strenuous objections from India. According to WAPDA the reservoir of Diamer-Basha dam will submerge 104 km of the Karakoram Highway and displace about 30,000 people. It runs along the Karakorum Highway.

Just downstream of Diamer-Basha is the third dam in the cascade – the 4,320 MW Dasu Hydropower Project. It will have a reservoir stretching upstream for 74 km along the Indus, all the way to the Diamer-Basha dam. It will also submerge 52 km of the Karakoram Highway. It is being funded by World Bank, which has bifurcated it in two – Dasu-I and Dasu-II.

And immediately downstream of that, WAPDA has planned the 2,200 MW Patan Hydropower Project, with a 35-km long reservoir that goes up to the Dasu dam. The fifth dam in the cascade is just a little downstream – the 4,000 MW Thakot Hydropower Project, which envisages diverting the Indus waters through four headrace tunnels to generate electricity.

In May 2017, Pakistan and China signed a MOU through which China will fund and build a cascade of five dams on northern Indus, costing $50 billion. Officials in Pakistan’s Ministry of Water and Power have been telling the domestic media that experts from the Chinese National Environment Agency (NEA) conducted a feasibility study of the entire cascade in February 2017 and were satisfied about the feasibility of the whole project ². It is claimed that the Indus Cascade will reduce water and food security in Pakistan instead.

1.2. The Diamer-Basha Dam

The Diamer Basha dam was first envisaged Forty years back and is now coming to take shape. In 2015, China Three Gorges Corporation had said it wanted to be part of a financing consortium with a USD 50 billion fund to build hydroelectric power projects in Pakistan.

In 2017 when then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif approved, in principle, the financing plan for the Diamer-Bhasha dam and ordered the secretary of water and power to start physical work on the dam before the end of 2017, but due to financial crunch it couldn’t start. Finally, an agreement was signed in September 2020 between China and Pakistan to construct Diamer-Basha dam ³. This contract covers construction of a diversion system, main dam, and access-bridge, at a cost of US $5.85 billion. It will be built jointly by state-run firm China Power (Chinese state-run firm) and Pakistan Army’s commercial wing, Frontier Works Organisation (FWO). The Chinese firm has a 70% stake in the joint venture, while the FWO holds the remaining 30% stake ⁴.  The officials say that now, after the signing of the MoU, the Chinese experts will conduct a more detailed study for three months to finalise both financing and execution of the projects.

The Diamer-Basha Dam is first of the five proposed dams, planned to be completed by 2028, the full cascade would take even longer and hence the total cost appears to be a broad estimate. A side effect of the cascade project will be the need to rebuild large parts of the Karakoram Highway. Building a road in the mountains always has a strong negative effect on the environment and increases the risk of landslides manifold.

1.3. Environmental Concerns

The massive reservoir will not only divide communities on both sides of the river, it will displace 50,000 people, inundate 4,000-year-old relics and have a devastating impact on the climate in the region, according to a news report ⁵.

The environmental protection department has planned a study to assess and mitigate the challenges to the climate and wildlife, while archaeological experts from Germany have identified 42,000 rocks that are to be moved before they sink underwater. A team of experts will cut inscriptions from the bigger rocks, make replicas for those which cannot be cut and shift smaller rocks to a museum being set up in Chilas.

Furthermore, the dam will likely spur huge changes in weather patterns.

Shehzad Shigri, the director of Gilgit-Baltistan’s Environmental Protection Agency says – “Around 0.1 billion cubic metres of water will evaporate every year from the reservoir [if the dam is constructed]. This may change the climate and weather patterns in the region.”

Aisha Khan, the chief executive of the Civil Society Collation for Climate Change says – “Rising temperatures will accelerate the melting of Himalayan glaciers and a significant amount of water will be drained in the next three decades.” Khan further asks – “Is it worth investing so much money [in the dam]?” Aisha added that the solution to Pakistan’s water challenges lies not in new dams but in improved water management and cropping patterns.

“The time for building new dams is gone,” said Simi Kamal, chairperson of the Hisaar Foundation, which works on building consensus on water policy. Kamal said Pakistan built big infrastructure like the rest of the world in the 1960s but it should now put effort, money and resources into maintaining those systems “since two-thirds of water is lost because of the leakages in the system.” Kamal said – “We have to plug the leakages and learn to live with climate change.” She concluded – “I don’t think this is the right time to build a new dam and that too in a seismically active zone when Pakistan has no money.”

1.4. Seismic Hazards

The risks and threats such a cascade of construction will pose are – sitting in the middle of fast eroding, highly unstable, and seismically active mountains at the junction of three tectonic plates. Recent volatile examples are the Attabad landslide in 2010 and the 2005 earthquake ⁶.

And then there’s an even bigger threat in this volatile geology – magnitude 8.0 or higher earthquakes. Scientific American in August 2015 had highlighted the risk of an inevitable disaster when a magnitude 8.0 or higher earthquake would hit the region because none of the existing dams, mostly built in India and China, had been designed to withstand it ⁶.

The region is lucky not to have that big an earthquake since the large-dam construction era began, but the possibility of a massive tremor, more powerful than the 2005 earthquake which measured 7.6 on the Richter scale, lurks over the horizon.

If the cascade collapses under such circumstances it would multiply the catastrophe beyond imagination. It could even result in the complete annihilation of civilisation along the course of the Indus River – when the cascade of dams collapses like dominoes.

There are 300 earthquakes on average in a single month at the proposed site of the Diamer-Basha dam. And this is not the only challenge as the reservoir of the dam is to be constructed on top of the Central Asian faultline ⁷.

A letter written by the original designer of the dam, General Butt, in 2004 to then Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf stated, “I shudder at the thought of earthquake eects on Bhasha. Dam-burst would wipe out Tarbela and all barrages on Indus; which would take us back to the stone-age ⁷.”

In a September 2018 letter addressed to the then chief justice of Pakistan, one of the US’s foremost design and infrastructure arms, AECOM, cautioned against the proposed Diamer-Basha dam. The letter said, “If Wapda decides to proceed with this concept, the cost would be exorbitant and construction time would exceed ten years. The project risk associated with an RCC dam is extremely high due to the transportation issue and seismic prole found at the location of the project. In summation, for practical and economic reasons the RCC dam should not be recommended for the DBD project ⁷.”

Saif M Hussain has more than 40 years of experience in structural engineering in seismically sensitive zones and an expert on structural engineering with a focus on seismic risks, describes his concerns over Pakistan’s largest proposed dam ⁸. He was also involved in rewriting the Pakistan Building Code’s seismic design provisions, and helped establish the Earthquake Engineering Centre at the University of Engineering and Technology in Peshawar. On Diamer Basha dam he said – “If it is pursued, no stone is left unturned to properly and completely assess, account for and mitigate against the risk created by building such a project in such a location.” He further said ⁸ – “The government of Pakistan must bring together not only the best-possible design and construction team, but also the best-possible independent third-party panel of seismic experts to implement and oversee the design and construction of this mega project, and to do so without further delay.”

On being asked to comment ⁸ on Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan statement to build several other dams on Pakistan’s rivers so the country can progress he said – “In my opinion the honourable PM appears to be somewhat misinformed. Even if one decides to proceed forward with such environmentally and financially consequential projects, one must at least ensure that state-of-the-art knowledge and practice is brought to bear during its implementation without regard to fear, favour or ‘politics’. As far as I am aware this may not quite be the case with the Diamer-Basha project.”

1.5. Loss of farmland

The very idea of this mega structure which will tame down the mighty Indus has spread fear among communities, especially those in the Indus delta who have already suffered from loss of farmland due to consecutive dam building upstream. Tens of thousands have unwillingly agreed to witness their homes going underwater.

The Indus delta is reported to have shrunk by 92% over the past two centuries due to reduced river flows caused by dam construction and mismanagement of water.

Gulab Shah, a farmer from Thatta district in Sindh province, told The Third Pole ⁸ – “I will lose my agricultural land after the new dam is built.” The 50-year-old farmer, whose family has already lost over 600 acres of land to sea intrusion, is left with only 25 acres near Keti Bandar. He said he has sleepless nights as he fears for the future of his family.

Muhammad Ali Shah, chairperson of Pakistan Fisherfolk Forum said – “The sea has already intruded 3.5 million acres of agriculture land in Badin, Thatta and Sajwal districts and affected the lives of more than two million people.” He added – “With the construction of the Basha dam, we fear losing the three districts altogether to the sea. But a lobby wants more dams to be built.”

1.6. Compensation for communities

On the issue of compensation for communities, the Chairman said that while 85% of the 37,419 acres required for the dam has been acquired, he admitted that the resettlement plan of those affected was not well-thought-out ⁸.

The most important factor which could potentially impede progress of the dam is opposition by the indigenous people of Gilgit Baltistan, where the dam site is located. Diamer-Bhasha Dam Affectees Action Committee, a group representing the people forcibly displaced by the dam construction, is demanding Rs 15 billion (A$130 million) in compensation, which the government has refused to pay ³. There is also a dispute between the Harban tribe of Kohistan and Thor tribe of Diamer over part of the land which will be used for the dam

1.7. Water and Climate Change

The IWT, designed six decades ago – well before the modern environmental movement emerged – is simply inadequate to manage the growing environmental challenges. A core problem is that the treaty is a partition agreement, not an integrated water management pact. In a sense it is a logical continuation of the partition of the subcontinent. Territory may be divided definitively, but dividing a flowing, dynamic resource water increasingly subject to the vagaries of climate change, is much more challenging.

A study has observed ⁹ – “Water and climate change are magnifying factors for what are at their root historical, ideological and territorial tensions in the India-Pakistan rivalry. By themselves, water tends to induce cooperation more than conflict, but if refracted through the prism of variability and uncertainty induced by climate change and existing deep political-ideological hostilities, it may increase chances of armed conflict.”

The fact that two of the five dam-cascade fall in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir further exaggerate such a possibility, namely Diamer-Bhasha and Bunji. India’s Ministry of External Affairs issued a strongly worded statement against the project ¹⁰. India considers it an infringement of its territorial sovereignty. Pakistan and China both reject India’s position and have decided to move on with construction. Diplomatic opposition from India will not go away anytime soon, however, and New Delhi will likely use every possible diplomatic option to disrupt the project.

1.8. Economic and Financial Issues

There is a dispute over the total cost of construction. Prior to awarding the contract, Pakistan’s Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) had always claimed the total cost of the dam to be $14 billion ¹⁰. After the signing ceremony for the contract, WAPDA claimed it would be only Pakistani Rs 1,406 billion (A $12 billion). Even accounting for fluctuation in the value of the Pakistani rupee, this 37% decrease in total cost is not possible.

The only logical explanation, therefore, is that WAPDA is down scaling the cost of the project so that they can show the public they have the required funds to complete it, which does not seem to be the case. In the budget for the fiscal year 2020–21, Pakistan has only allocated Pakistani Rs 61 billion (A $523 million), which only makes up 2.6% of the original estimated cost of the dam, suggesting Pakistan is still short of financial resources to build the dam, despite a loan agreed by China.

Pakistan is certainly in a financial crunch and would be unable to self-finance the project. Only last week, the government diverted $6.23 million from a COVID-19 relief fund to pay interest on energy debts.

As of March 2020, external debt of Pakistan is around US $ 112 billion, more than half of it has been accumulated from CPEC.

James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), believes that China will fund the project through loans to Pakistan, but how these will be repaid remains to be seen ¹⁰. Dorsey said that the project will serve China’s interests more than Pakistan’s because “China has the upper hand in bargaining due to its economic support to Pakistan under CPEC.”

With the dam’s potential to generate electricity and irrigate large tracts of land, Islamabad is treating the project as a strategic priority. But these issues – along with the burden of repaying loans to China – may very well make this dam more of a liability than an asset.

Author- Arun Kumar Singh

 

 

Footnotes

1. http://www.wapda.gov.pk/index.php/indus-cascade-vision[↩][↩]
2. Joydeep Gupta (2017).  Indus cascade a Himalayan blunder. The Third Pole. 22 May 2017[↩]
3. Adnan Aaamir (2020) China ignores India over dam project in Pakistani Kashmir. Nikkei Asian Review. 24 May 2020[↩][↩]
4. Snehesh Alex Philip. Pakistan’s 40-yr-old Gilgit-Baltistan dam project could finally be a reality, with China help. Pakistan Defence. 15 May 2020 [↩]
5. Qamar-uz-Zaman (2020). Pakistan breaks ground for dream dam project at Diamer. The Third Pole. 8 July 2020[↩]
6. Hassan Abbas (2017). Indus Cascade Dams a Disaster Waiting to Play out in Pakistan. The Third Pole. 7 July 2017[↩][↩]
7. News Report. China-funded Diamer-Basha Dam in PoK an ecological disaster in the making. The Economic Times. 9 September 2020[↩][↩][↩]
8. Saif M Hussain (2020). Dimer-Basha project needs independent seismic experts. The Third Pole. 17 July 2020[↩][↩][↩][↩][↩]
9. Sarang Shidore (2020). Climate Change and the India-Pakistan Rivalry. BRIEFER No. 4. The Council on Strategic Risks. 23 January 2020 [↩]
10. Adnan Aamir (2020). Obstacles remain for Pakistan dam backed by China. The Interpreter. 14 July 2020[↩][↩][↩]